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The End of ISIS

Even though the threat of the terrorist organization is waning and the end of their caliphate state is close many say that they will survive. Within talking about the War After the War you can see how it is easily said that the organization known as ISIS will be able to survive and move forward with their attempts to rid the western influence in the middle east. ISIS will be able to survive even after the fall of their caliphate state since the ideas that they hold have been able to move around the world since their rise within the news. This meaning that they were talked about on the news channels and others which allowed for their message or ideas to be transferred to those who would not know about them. This makes it possible for ISIS to survive through others even when their territory is gone. Another way would have to be the joining of ISIS and al-Qaeda after the territory is lost which will allow for them to survive through another group. Another possible way that ISIS can survive is through the western states within Europe that have been less forthcoming with the assimilation of the people from the Middle East. This being those like France that has laws against turbans at certain times which can be seen as hatred towards these people if you take it from another perspective. This viewed hatred is easily used to create hatred for these certain places by people who see problems with the failed assimilation which could turn into radical people in the area and with this the ideas of ISIS could possibly survive. The caliphate state might fall but with that, the United States might see that their interests do not lie within the Middle East anymore with would cause for another retreat but this will possibly only make things worse again. This meaning that they should be around to be able to defend their allies within the area, but if they do pull out it leaves the area to be filled with whatever group is the fastest and this creates a power vacuum within the area which will just resort to more conflict and fighting. This power vacuum could be all that ISIS needs to happen since once their territory is lost and the U.S. pulls out of the Middle East they and any other group is in an all-out race to claim the land that was left, which could lead to another group starting from the ashes of ISIS with possibly al-Qaeda moving into the area as well. Others can say that by the U.S. staying in the Middle East it will possibly only make things worse since the U.S. has no job in being the world police and if we try to do this we could stretch ourselves too much. This is a valid point to address since the U.S. should not be the world police but like what was mentioned before we have to protect our allies which would keep us within the area to ensure those who might not be able to keep themselves safe are safe. Another argument is that the power vacuum that we fear that will happen if we leave is just a way of justifying the U.S. staying in the Middle East. The power vacuum that we fear is more a legitimate fear since this is what happened with the first time that we tried pulling out of the Middle East The battle with ISIS can be seen as much more of a straightforward battle than it was with the other terrorist organization known as al-Qaeda since with al-Qaeda you could not point to a certain position and attack knowing that the group controls the soil and that they will protect it, but with ISIS you find that you are able to do this and when attacking you know that pushing into territory the ISIS fighters will be there to stop you. This is a downfall for ISIS since they will lose their territory but this also can be a burden to those who are trying to wipe them out or stop the radical acts that they are doing. It can be a burden since by ISIS having a legitimate place in the world rather than being a roaming organization it legitimizes them more to the outside world showing that they are more than just a set of ideas and that they are more of a threat than a hidden organization. This makes it so that those who they want to get their message out to will be able to receive it and possibly help them attract more people to fighting their cause. This not only exposes them to those who would not hear about this if they were more hidden but also shows that it is a way of life for many people which can be a driving factor for bringing new people to them.
https://www.counterextremism.com/press/will-isis-survive-collapse-caliphate http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/30/can-the-islamic-state-survive-if-baghdadi-is-dead/

Comments

  1. UnknownOctober 3, 2017 at 4:15 PM

    Your analysis really leaves me with the question: how does one fight against an idea? This is something governments have been faced with for centuries, and something that has plagued American interests in the Middle East. In some ways the complications of battling an ideology can be exhibited by the difficulties in battling Al-Qaeda. As you mentioned, it was much easier for the United States to fight against ISIS because they controlled a very specific territory. However, it was much harder to combat Al-Qaeda because they do not live in one place, but in caves and towns across the Middle East. The problems with fighting an ideology has been exasperated by the ease of technology which allows for people's ideas to be published and read all over the world in minutes. While the state of ISIS might die, the ideology will live on, at least for a while.

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  2. AnonymousOctober 8, 2017 at 8:26 PM

    I thought your point of calling ISIS a "threat of a hidden organization" and differentiating that with a roaming set of ideas and practices is a very interesting route. When initially reading your blog, the thought/notion "out of sight out of mind" came into my mind. That if ISIS were to be completely eradicated would this deem all elimination of extremism thoughts and jihadist ideals that are so poignant within this group? If ISIS fails to exist, would people even continue to live on its threat? Personally, I think not; however, the actions of ISIS could possibly set precedent for those looking to radicalize. The actions of ISIS are arguably the most graphic and cruelest forms of extremist threat; therefore, this could creating a platform for possibly only more severity. The group of ISIS might fade but the impact of it may become a model for others.
    Furthermore, your point of failed assimilation causing ISIS to live on is an interesting thought. As it seemed, France eventually lifted its ban on the hijab for Muslim women; however, it seems that this small gain becomes more minute. Muslims throughout Europe, especially in France, are seen as second-class citizens while French nationalism reigns supreme. Possibly, due to this inability to assimilate, the frustrations and a radical spark could cause the continuation of extremism.

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